The Long View 2008-09-01: Louisiana With Snow
John J. Reilly here paints an extremely [some might say overly] sympathetic portrait of Sarah Palin. Since the McCain-Palin ticket lost, such portrayals are likely to lose out compared to parodies like the 2012 movie, Iron Sky. [Amazon link]
This is a good example of how you might do the optics of a successful populist campaign in the United States. John had a good sense for that kind of thing. As I think populism is likely to wax in influence, I think we will see more of this.
And by the blessings of the Almighty, that is close to what is happening. Hurricane Gustav and its descent on New Orleans have cancelled the first day of events. Happily, the hurricane is not doing the damage foretold. Even more happily, the president and vice president are not coming to St. Paul. If McCain is wise, he and his running mate will spend the week in Louisiana handing out relief packages to storm refugees. They can make their acceptance speeches by satellite-feed from a mess tent, the both of them dressed in National Guard camouflage fatigues.
Louisiana with Snow
Regarding Senator McCain’s choice of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate, what we have here is a situation in which Art has anticipated Life. An example of this Art is the 1992 film, Wayne’s World, which included this dialog between the principal characters, played by Mike Myers and Dana Carvey:
Wayne Campbell: ...She's a fox. In French she would be called "la renarde" and she would be hunted with only her cunning to protect her.
Garth Algar: She's a babe.
Wayne Campbell: She's a robo-babe. In Latin she would be called "babia majora".
Garth Algar: If she were a president she would be Baberaham Lincoln.
Just so.
As a Primat der Aussenpolitik kind of guy, I regret the selection of a state governor of for the presidential ticket. Senator Joe Biden, Palin’s opposite number on the Democratic ticket, really is one of the grown-ups in the Senate; despite his buffoonish public behavior, he is a genuine foreign-policy expert. On the other hand, unlike many governors, and especially unlike many Republican officeholders, Governor Palin gives the impression of being someone with her brain turned on. She came to her views by experience, rather than by reading a script (though like Ronald Reagan, she has also been a sportscaster). One suspects that, like the man who nominated her, she is often off-message.
It is encouraging that the remarkably corrupt Republican establishment of Alaska hates her. As is the case with other petrolist American states, notably Louisiana, the effect of funding the government through taxes on extraction industries has fostered a looter-mentality political culture. When people receive services without being taxed to pay for them, they don’t much care how the money is counted and spent. Palin’s chief political qualification is a record as a reformer. Her best analogue, in some ways, is Harry Truman, who was also a conspicuously honest man who came from a crooked political system, and who had little foreign-policy or political experience when he became vice president. Of course, he had far more general experience of government than Sarah Palin has. Even Barack Obama has more experience, though not by much.
Getting back to Art, the high concept for Palin’s selection is Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (1939), and the whole raft of films made since on the theme of Everyman Comes Unexpectedly to Power. Sometimes the Everyman becomes president. Sometimes, as in the most recent example, Swing Vote, he just becomes very important. As far as I know, none of these movies has ever been friendly to Movement Conservatism or Libertarianism. Their premise is not that government is the problem, but that bad government is the problem. Palin, as a reformer, fits this premise very well.
The argument is misplaced that says the Republicans are seeking to attract the women’s vote under the theory that “any woman will do.” If the Republicans had determined to chose “any woman,” they would have chosen an Overclass socially moderate Babyboomer make-weight; in other words, someone like Hillary Clinton herself. Instead, the Republicans, or rather McCain personally, chose a moose-hunting leading-cohort GenXer. Not the least important aspect of this choice is the advance from pro-life ideology (another desiccated Babyboomer phenomenon, perhaps) to actual pronatalism. Fertility is not normally considered a qualification for high office, but I think that people like Maria Theresa would have responded badly to the assertion that children can be reason for objection.
Governor Palin does not just have a lot of kids, and recently; the boyfriend of her pregnant daughter is about to be rounded up for a shotgun wedding. Back when that was how these things were usually managed, such antics would have been seen as disreputable. However, McCain knew about the situation before making his choice; wagering, I think, that this family drama would be humanizing. He was right. At any rate, he has maintained command of the news cycle.
After last week’s very successful Obamarama in Denver, McCain needed to focus attention on himself. The organizers of the 2008 Democratic Convention succeeded in creating the appearance of drama in a process that was as scripted as any infomercial. As for Senator Obama’s acceptance speech, no doubt Mickey Kaus and Peggy Noonan are right to point out that it was humorless and a bit hectoring. I would point out that it seemed to presuppose extreme economic distress and foreign disaster, neither of which was apparent at the time the speech was given. Still, it was very good of its kind, and anything the Republicans are likely to say this week at their convention in St. Paul is likely to sound insubstantial and look shoddily staged in comparison. Indeed, McCain needed not just to focus attention on himself, but away from the Republican Party. The national Republican Party assembled tends to say things that much of the electorate finds uncongenial. The hilariously unpopular President Bush and Vice President Cheney were supposed to be there. Appearing on the same stage with them could have been lethal. Best of all for McCain would have been the cancellation of the Convention, with the formal nomination done by email.
And by the blessings of the Almighty, that is close to what is happening. Hurricane Gustav and its descent on New Orleans have cancelled the first day of events. Happily, the hurricane is not doing the damage foretold. Even more happily, the president and vice president are not coming to St. Paul. If McCain is wise, he and his running mate will spend the week in Louisiana handing out relief packages to storm refugees. They can make their acceptance speeches by satellite-feed from a mess tent, the both of them dressed in National Guard camouflage fatigues.
Worse events later in the campaign may require a more pro-active response.
Copyright © 2008 by John J. Reilly
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